Reflections on the Bangsa Moro

At around 10 am yesterday, my cousin texted me (short for sent me an SMS message) that they were already in Congressional Avenue but could not proceed because of floods. I could not believe it. I texted back that they should try the route via Mindanao Avenue. She replied that the jeepneys were turning back from Mindanao Avenue. I texted back that if it were true, then EDSA would be flooded. I suggested that they should wait it out in the nearest mall or restaurant.

I have lived here for nine years and we never experienced massive flooding in the area. I turned on the TV and was shocked at what I saw. Massive floods everywhere. People were stranded on their rooftops – right here in Quezon City.

My friend left Makati at 12 noon and reached Congressional Avenue 9 hours later.

A few days ago, I attended a conference on Climate Change in Antipolo City. It rained in the afternoon. Going to my car, I asked the man who was holding an umbrella for me if the area gets flooded easily. He said no. My driver said, “Sir, Antipolo ito!” (Sir, this is Antipolo!). Because of its elevation, Antipolo is supposedly safe from floods.

In fact, during lunch, we were saying that if the sea level rises significantly, Metro Manilans would just transfer to Antipolo.

Yesterday, while watching the news on TV, a caller was asking for help. She said there were many people stranded on the second floor of their homes in Antipolo City, near Ynares Center. And she said her relatives in Barangay San Roque needed help because flood waters were so high. The conference I attended was in a resort in Barangay San Roque.

CLIMATE CHANGE

According to a PAGASA official, the amount of rainfall caused by this typhoon is equivalent to one month’s amount of rainfall. In nine hours, Ondoy dropped 410 mm of rainfall, more than the amount recorded for the first 25 days of September, which were full of rainy days. The weatherman said that this was an effect of Climate Change.

The U.N. Convention on Climate Change defines Climate Change as “change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”

According to study by the Asian Development Bank on the economics of Climate Change, the Philippines will have more rainy days and more amount of rainfall; the country’s rice yields will go down by as much as 75% by the year 2100; and, the country will experience more destructive typhoons due to Climate Change.

The ADB report further stated: “During the past 15 years, the country was hit by the strongest typhoon ever recorded, the most destructive typhoon, the deadliest storm, and the typhoon that registered the highest recorded 24-hour rainfall.”

Yesterday, a new record on the highest amount of rainfall has been established.

ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGE

Many people still don’t believe that Climate Change exists. Like George Bush and Sarah Palin, they believe that Climate Change is not caused by human activities. They cite some scientists who claim that Climate Change is a mere creation of some vested interests. The fact, however, is that the United Nations panel of experts, including the Nobel Prize awardee, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and all the academies of science of developed countries, have all argued with tons of scientific data, that Climate Change exists mainly because of Global Warming caused by human activities and man-made machines and factories.

US President Barack Obama puts it very clearly: “All across the world, in every kind of environment and region known to man, increasingly dangerous weather patterns and devastating storms are abruptly putting an end to the long-running debate over whether or not climate change is real. Not only is it real, it’s here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the man-made natural disaster.”

Climate Change gives rise to the paradox of "man-made natural disaster".

Typhoon Ondoy has shown that even a weak typhoon (85 kilometers per hour or Signal No. 1) can create havoc to millions of people and the whole of Metro Manila and 25 nearby provinces in less than 10 hours. What if Ondoy packed a 200 kph windspeed?

The government and the Filipino people should put Climate Change issues on top of their agenda. Philippines is one of the countries most vulnerable to Climate Change.

The media, especially the Lopez-owned ABS-CBN, made sure that all Filipinos would read about, listen and/or watch the Cory Aquino wake and funeral rites. While watching the seemingly endless media coverage of the affair, I realized that there are only TWO groups in the Philippine political class today – the Marcos group and the Aquino group. All of them were “made” either by Marcos or Aquino or their cronies. Those who (or whose family) came before Marcos time re-entered the political class through either Marcos or Cory.

There were, of course, exceptions. They came from nowhere. Manny Villar came to the political scene by way of becoming a billionaire. Noli de Castro came via the TV/radio media.

AGENDA-SETTING

The unheard of news coverage (which is still on-going) of Cory’s death evidently points to an agenda by media.

The media trumpeted that Cory’s death supposedly “buried Cha-Cha (Charter Change)”. Later, they built up Cory’s son, Noynoy as the “anointed”, a veritable new Messiah.

The Lopezes, who own the ABS-CBN network, owed practically everything to Cory. Cory gave them back ABS-CBN – lock, stock and barrel and even more.

The leading newspaper, the Philippine Daily Inquirer, had a bad experience with Joseph Estrada, who is planning a comeback.

The second leading newspaper, the Philippine Star, has always been pro-Cory.

AQUINO GROUP UNITED

The power of the media is now proven with the unity of the Aquino group. The Aquino political class has closed ranks behind Benigno Aquino III or “Noynoy”, the lackluster son of Ninoy and Cory Aquino.

Mar Roxas, the Liberal Party standard bearer, was forced to take a back seat to the Anointed. Roxas’s fiancée, TV/radio broadcaster Korina Sanchez, must be fuming. Incidentally, Sanchez was supposedly romantically linked to Noynoy before Mar.

MARCOS GROUP SCATTERED

While the Aquino political class has united, the Marcos political class is still divided. The patriarchs of the group are former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada and his 1992 presidential running mate, Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco, Cory’s first cousin.

Erap still dreams of becoming president again. Danding has two surrogates – Chiz Escudero and his nephew, Gilbert Teodoro.

Teodoro is trying to get the nod of the ruling party, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s Lakas-Kampi-CMD.

By definition (as mentioned above), GMA belongs to the Aquino group. But because of circumstances, she is now the Aquino group’s Public Enemy No. 1.

To unite the Marcos group, Chiz should unite with Erap. An Erap-Chiz tandem would be a match to the Noynoy-Mar team-up. Noynoy should team-up with Mar. It is the gentlemanly thing to do. But for pragmatic reasons, the group would probably get another guy. They should not get one from their group, like Makati kingpin Jejomar Binay. It would be better if they get somebody from the Marcos political class like Senator Richard Gordon. Or, they could get Supreme Court Chief Justice Puno, who is waging a “morality” campaign, whatever that means.

NOT LIKE THEIR FATHERS

I truly feel sorry for both Mar and Noynoy. They are not their fathers yet their families / clans expect them to follow their fathers’ footsteps. Mar is not Gerry and Noynoy is almost the opposite of Ninoy.

As a child and a young man, I had great respect and admiration for Gerry Roxas and Ninoy Aquino. Unfortunately, I think their sons did not get their fathers’ charismatic charms.

Villar and de Castro do not belong to either political class. The two can team up but they will lack the political clout or the so-called “command votes” enjoyed by members of the political class. Villar’s Nacionalista Party has very few members.

De Castro is still weighing his options. He could either join GMA’s or Villar’s party.

GMA AGENDA

Whatever GMA’s agenda is, her party should get a fairly popular president. Teodoro and Bayani Fernando come last in all surveys on presidential candidates. On the other hand, the Vice President is a very popular fellow. He can give the very popular Estrada a run for his money. Their constituencies belong to the lower classes – C,D and E. And that is where most of the Philippine populace belong.

A Noli de Castro – Gilbert Teodoro tandem would do well for Gloria’s party.

If everyone play their cards well, the 2010  presidential elections could be very interesting.